ICM Epidemiological Model
Spatially and contextually resolving

The ICM Epidemiological Model describes the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland. It is capable of forecasting potential paths of further epidemic development, as well as simulating various scenarios and effects introduced by dynamically applied administrative restrictions.

ICM model’s description

ICM provides the results of short time predictions as well as possible variants of the spread of the epidemic in longer time scales assuming appropriate restrictions or parameters of the disease. The main idea of ​​the model is to utilize the possibly full representation of the social structure of the country to the level of individual people residing in Poland and their contacts. This approach offers potentially great opportunities, but it is also associated with enormous analytical and programming work and a constant struggle to obtain the data needed to construct and calibrate the model. However, we already have some practice in this.

Our model is spatially and contextually resolving. This means that we can follow the spreading of the epidemic on a geographic grid at a resolution of 1 km2 and that the physical contacts through which the virus is transmitted take place in various types of places characteristic of our lives. Currently, we have defined separate categories: households, workplaces, kindergartens, schools, colleges, travel, and random street meetings.

The course of the disease that each virtual inhabitant undergoes in our model corresponds to the typical course of the COVID-19 disease. However, the key parameters of the model, i.e. the baseline virus transmissibility and our tendency to leave home with mild symptoms, are calibrated, in Bayesian fashion, to the actual course of the epidemic.

The ICM team cooperates on an ongoing basis with the Minister of Health and the Department of Analyzes and Strategies of the Ministry of Health and the Government Center for Security (RCB). We are a member of the COVID-19 epidemic monitoring and forecasting team appointed by the Minister of Health. It is with great satisfaction that we cooperate with other teams modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland: the MOCOS group from the Wrocław University of Technology, the team of prof. A. Gambin from MiMUW, and modeling teams from PZH (prof. M. Rosińska) and Ministry of Health.

Current forecast
Prediction of the maximum occupancy of hospitals
Agreement of simulation and data at regional level
Excessive number of deaths in 2020
New cases
Virus variants
Infections in age groups
Infections in contexts

Map of regional agreement (at counties level) of new cases and deaths, colors correspond to place at RMSD rank; histograms of RMDS for new cases and deaths.

New cases in voivodeships, results of simulation and official data.

Maps of counties – number per 100k inhabitants: (i) new cases at maximum of coming wave (model data, with dark figure included); (ii) total expected number of deaths; (iii) and (iv) hospitalized patients and patients of ICU at maximum of coming wave; (v) vaccinations.

New cases of infections by virus variants

Temporal dependences of number of new cases, in age groups.

Temporal dependence of number of new infections in contexts.

Simulation of Covid-19 spread in Poland

The first version of the ICM Epidemiological Model was created in 2008-2010, published in scientific articles and was presenting the potential course of the spread of the flu epidemic. As a result, we now have a model that works at nationwide level, it reflects well the actual epidemiological situation and has great development potential to study detailed effects on the dynamics of epidemics.

The video presents the spread of the Sars-Cov-2 epidemic in Poland, from March 2020 to July 2022. The graph shows the 7-day average number of cases (according to the data provided by the Ministry of Health), while the map is a regional visualization of the ICM model, where the color intensity corresponds to the number of cases in a 1×1 km square.

Dr. Franciszek Rakowski

EMAIL arrow


Poland Pavilion
1 October 2021 – 31 March 2022


From 10:00 to 22:00


“Mobility” sector Expo Dubai 2020

Virtual Expo Dubai arrow
Skip to content